Port congestion, grid fragility, depleted stocks — Q4 tightens
23 October 2026
German power hit €199/MWh and TTF gas surged 4% to €90.90/MWh as Norwegian flows dropped sharply and the mini-correction of recent days proved short-lived. DES ARA physical is holding at $150/t but the market is showing its stress: 20 vessels are queuing to discharge at Rotterdam, traders are diverting to Wilhelmshaven and Gdansk, and November cargoes are trading at a significant discount to December — a physical bottleneck rather than a demand problem. India’s power plant stockpiles have fallen 58% below last year on a like-for-like basis, and South Korea is on track for a 22% year-on-year rise in coal-fired generation in Q4. Something has to give.
Sri Lanka’s 11-hour national blackout this week adds a new dimension to the global energy story. Triggered by a maintenance fault at a coal plant, it was amplified by 1,700MW of uncontrolled rooftop solar that tripped offline when grid frequency dropped — echoing Spain’s April 2025 blackout. As solar penetration accelerates across emerging markets without matching grid investment, the reliability of dispatchable coal generation is quietly becoming more valuable, not less.
With Shanxi coal output still 31% below last year, Indonesian exports running near 900KT/day, and European gas storage 8 points behind last year, the setup into winter is as tight as it has been all year.
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Guillaume Perret
$150 — and the market wants more
20 October 2026
FOB NEWC spot and DES ARA physical both crossed $150/t this week, with DES ARA November financial confirming support above that level at $154.30/t and Cal 27 rising to $149/t. TTF gas is pushing toward €90/MWh, German power is testing €191/MWh, and Brent is challenging $110/bbl. Morocco’s TAQA — which has timed the market exceptionally well all year — has just issued its first long-term tender for 2027 delivery of up to 1.2mt, a signal that at least one sophisticated buyer is turning structurally bullish rather than waiting for the next dip.
The supply picture is tightening from multiple angles simultaneously. Chinese coal production is bottoming out but remains 4.4% below last year year-to-date, with a shortfall of 140–150mt on steam coal alone now anticipated for 2026. Indonesian daily exports are running 35–40% below 2025 norms. South Korean utilities have been buying Colombian coal aggressively — diverting Atlantic supply eastward — while Kazakh exports remain constrained and Colombian production is only gradually scaling up. A sudden 18% drop in Chinese hydro in September, contrasting sharply with the strong preceding months, is raising quiet questions about whether safety restrictions post-Tibet may be adding yet another variable to an already tight equation.
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Guillaume Perret
Winter is coming — and the buffers are thin
9 October 2026
FOB NEWC spot is holding just below $150/t while DES ARA physical reached $145.25/t, with German power surging to €182/MWh as Europe heads into winter with renewables underperforming by an estimated 77TWh year-to-date. EU gas storage is closing in on the 80% benchmark but key countries including Germany and the Netherlands remain well short. India’s power plant stockpiles have now fallen 55% below last year — a restocking cycle of some scale is increasingly unavoidable.
Turkey is quietly becoming a new source of demand pressure. Coal-fired generation has risen for three consecutive months and the year-on-year deficit has narrowed sharply, prompting utilities to restock at a moment when Kazakh exports are falling and Colombian supply is still ramping up. The Philippines is planning to add up to 1GW of new coal capacity, bending its own rules to do so, as grid reliability constraints continue to cap generation despite strong underlying demand.
With 77TWh of renewable underperformance in Europe alone this year, and multiple major markets simultaneously in destocking or restocking mode, the setup heading into Q4 is unusually tight. Subscribe to stay ahead of what comes next.
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Guillaume Perret
Indonesia under pressure — a domino effect reaches Europe
1 October 2026
DES ARA physical climbed back to $141.75/t and the Q4 financial contract to $142.60/t, even as the broader energy complex consolidates. The driver is supply, not demand: Kazakh coal exports are being squeezed out of Northwest Russian ports as local exporters reclaim priority following the Black Sea blockade, triggering a domino effect that is tightening an already stretched Atlantic market heading into winter. EU gas storage sits nearly 12 points below last year, and Poland — which relies heavily on Kazakh coal for its heating market — is caught without an easy substitute.
Indonesia adds another layer of uncertainty. The Bayan Force Majeure episode and the near-simultaneous acquisition by an investor close to President Prabowo — followed within days by the release of additional production quotas — has rattled market confidence in the regulatory framework. Indonesian daily exports remain stuck below 1mt/day, and miners are increasingly uncertain about 2027 production levels. Meanwhile India's power plant stockpiles have fallen 54% below last year's level, one of the most striking destocking trajectories in our dataset.
With Chinese imports running 7% below last year year-to-date despite falling domestic production, a restocking cycle is building across multiple major importers simultaneously. The Daily Report has the full picture.
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Guillaume Perret
China: Peak Coal Further Postponed
22 september 2026
How will China’s rising electricity demand and expanding use of coal in chemicals shape its long-term need for steam coal imports? The September 2026 China report revisits that question in light of the country’s latest Five-Year Plans and developments in domestic coal production.
The report updates Perret Associates’ forecasts through 2040 and examines the changing roles of coal, hydro, wind, solar and nuclear power. It also explores the factors that could make China’s coal consumption and import requirements more volatile.
Available exclusively to subscribers of the Long Term Price Forecast (LTPF) module.
Guillaume Perret
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Summer is over — markets take stock
17 september 2026
The energy complex is pulling back after its summer highs, with TTF gas shedding 3.6% to €77/MWh, German power easing to €169/MWh and Brent retreating to $105/bbl. FOB NEWC spot slipped to $145/t and DES ARA physical to $139.75/t as the shoulder season sets in across Europe — lower air conditioning demand, no heating yet, and temperatures finally returning to normal. The correction has room to run, but the medium-term case remains intact.
The more structural story this week is Vietnam. Facing a projected 2027 power deficit of 4,200MW, the government has formally turned away from LNG and is proposing to add 5,300MW of new coal capacity alongside solar and wind by 2030 — a significant policy reversal with direct implications for Asian steam coal demand for years ahead. Meanwhile Colombia is ramping up supply at the right moment: exports jumped 36% month-on-month in August, Glencore targets 20mt at Cerrejon in 2027, and Drummond is aiming for 29–30mt this year.
With Chinese utilities restocking ahead of Golden Week and Indonesia still plagued by low river levels and permitting delays, the tug-of-war between near-term correction and medium-term tightness is very much alive. The Daily Report has the details.
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Guillaume Perret
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Records fall as hydro fails — a correction is overdue
11 september 2026
TTF gas breached €80/MWh following Ukrainian drone strikes on the Yamal LNG terminal, German power hit €174/MWh, and Brent confirmed its break above $100/bbl — all in the same week. Coal is moving with the complex but more hesitantly: DES ARA physical holds at $141/t and FOB NEWC spot at $148/t, still trading at a significant discount to financial contracts. EU gas storage is now 12 points behind last year, and the gap keeps widening.
Not every market is following the same script. Brazil's hydro is holding up despite El Niño, Thailand has been largely insulated from Hormuz thanks to domestic gas reserves, and Taiwan is burning more gas than ever — though how long it can sustain that pace, having relied on Hormuz for the bulk of its LNG supply before March, is an open question. The divergence between exposed and insulated markets is increasingly shaping global coal trade flows.
With Qinhuangdao domestic prices up to CNY990/t and Indonesia still exporting well below 2025 norms, the medium-term tightness is not going away.
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Guillaume Perret
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Records fall as hydro fails — a correction is overdue
25 August 2026
FOB NEWC spot has reached $142/t and DES ARA physical $136.25/t, with German power breaching €163/MWh and TTF gas confirming its break above €67/MWh resistance. The driver is a story playing out across two continents simultaneously: El Niño-weakened monsoons are forcing India and Vietnam to replace lost hydro generation with coal at record rates, while European hydro across Germany, France, Italy and Spain tracks toward its worst year on record. India's power plant stockpiles are now 43% below last year — a restocking cycle is inevitable. That said, NEWC paper is overbought, DES ARA financial is overstretched, and a short-term correction is likely before the next leg up.
South African coal prices are finally catching up with the broader rally, with Richards Bay spot jumping $4 to $122/t. Morocco's TAQA is back in the market for October–November cargoes — having timed previous tenders exceptionally well this year, this time they may find the Atlantic market less accommodating.
The medium-term setup has rarely looked this constructive across so many markets at once. The Daily Report has the details.
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Guillaume Perret
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Markets test resistance — a Nepal disaster adds a new fault line
25 August 2026
OB NEWC spot climbed to $137/t while DES ARA Q4 financial hit its highest level since June, approaching the critical $135/t resistance that has capped the market since February. Chinese buying is providing fresh momentum, with a major state utility tendering for 1.2mt as domestic coal output remains constrained — Shanxi production hit its lowest level since February 2020, and capacity utilisation at Chinese mines has stalled at 84% since May's disaster. India's power plant stockpiles are now 39% below last year, another indicator that restocking demand is building.
The week's most significant development may prove to be geopolitical rather than commercial. A catastrophic landslide on the China-Nepal border has destroyed a nearly-complete hydropower dam that was set to supply 10% of Nepal's electricity — and raises urgent questions about China's own 60GW Yarlung Zangbo mega-dam project in Tibet, built directly above an active fault line. Any disruption to Chinese hydro generation from safety inspections would add directly to thermal coal demand at the worst possible moment.
With EU gas storage running 12 points below last year, Indonesian exports still well below 2025 norms, and multiple resistance levels being tested simultaneously, the Daily Report has never been more worth reading.
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Guillaume Perret
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Key resistance levels broken — a more significant move may be coming
21 August 2026
Energy markets are quietly building momentum. TTF gas breached the critical €63/MWh resistance level, German power is testing its July peak at €147.90/MWh, and Brent crude cleared $91.50/bbl — all in the same session. DES ARA physical jumped $4 to $128.25/t with September availability described as very tight, while FOB NEWC spot edged up to $129.50/t, maintaining a stubborn $10 discount to Q4 financial contracts. Something has to give — and the direction of travel is increasingly clear.
Behind the price action, the structural story is tightening. Chinese coal output from the top four regions fell another 11% year-on-year in July — Shanxi production hit its lowest level since February 2020 following the Liushenyu mine disaster — while EU hydropower from the four largest generators is on track for a record low in 2026, with German hydro hitting its lowest July level since 2002. Rhine water levels dropped to just 9cm at Kaub, forcing utilities onto trucks and trains and capping coal consumption despite clean dark spreads above €40/MWh. Indonesian exports continue to run well below last year's pace at 800KT/day.
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Guillaume Perret
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Bullish fundamentals build — but spot drags its feet
13 August 2026
A striking $10 gap has opened between FOB NEWC spot at $127.50/t and Q4 financial contracts at $137.75/t — one of the two will have to move. The medium-term case is accumulating fast: South Korean gas-to-coal switching is now confirmed with coal-fired generation up 22% in H1, Vietnam is restocking aggressively with July imports up 37% year-on-year, and India's weaker monsoon is leaving hydro reservoirs below seasonal norms — pointing to stronger thermal coal demand in H2. Indonesian daily exports have slipped further to 830KT/day, well below last year's pace.
In Europe, French nuclear outages have reached 10.8GW — 17% of total fleet capacity — with EDF even deploying fishing vessels to clear jellyfish from the Gravelines plant intake. EU gas storage is now nearly 13 points behind last year's level, and European LNG buyers are being consistently outbid by Northeast Asia. The heatwave peaks this weekend before temperatures ease, but the underlying drought across the continent remains unresolved.
With so many bullish signals stacking up simultaneously across Asia and Europe, the daily report has the details that matter. Subscribe to stay ahead.
Guillaume Perret
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Buyers hold back as Hormuz hopes cloud the outlook
6 August 2026
A perceived de-escalation on the Iranian front is keeping buyers on the sidelines, with DES ARA spot shedding $4.75 in a single session to close at $117/t — a move that Perret Associates views as an overreaction to geopolitical headlines rather than a reflection of underlying fundamentals. FOB NEWC eased another dollar to $130/t while financial contracts across the curve lost $2–3, with the DES ARA forward curve now peaking in Q1 2027 at $121/t before declining — a structure that may attract pre-winter buying before year-end. EU gas storage, though building, remains nearly 13 percentage points below last year's level at the same date, and French nuclear outages have edged up again to 7.7GW or 12% of total fleet capacity. The coal fundamentals have not changed: what has changed is sentiment, and sentiment driven by Iran headlines has proven volatile and reversible throughout this cycle.
Indonesian exports are proving more resilient than the government's 600mt production cap and DSI announcements suggested at the start of the year, with H1 shipments down only 3% year-on-year at 231.6mt. El Niño dry conditions are supporting mine output, and most operators have found ways to navigate the regulatory uncertainty. Nevertheless a full-year decline of 46.5mt remains Perret Associates' central forecast, and the weekly export pace — now running at just 900KT/day, 24% below last week — is a reminder that the second half will be tighter. South Korea adds an interesting demand signal: utility KOMIPO has issued long-term tenders for 4mt of high-CV coal specifying Australian origin and explicitly excluding Indonesian and in some cases Russian material — a telling sign that years of heavy low-CV Indo purchasing may have left blending quality short.
Guillaume Perret
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Records tumble as nuclear stress spreads beyond France
4 August 2026
Coal demand is hitting seasonal records across Asia even as the European market sends mixed signals. Coal consumption at China's top six power plants surged to 944KT on 3 August — 6% above last year and 12% above the seasonal average — while Vietnamese coal-fired generation jumped 41% year-on-year in June to its highest June level on record. Qinhuangdao domestic prices have edged up to CNY830/t after two weeks of consolidation, and both Russian and Indonesian origins are now competitive for Chinese delivery, with Australian coal back at parity. The fundamental backdrop is strengthening quietly, even as FOB NEWC financial contracts eased $2 on the day to $135.75/t and DES ARA physical ticked up to $122.75/t as the assessment window rolled forward from August to September.
The nuclear stress that has defined this summer in France is now spreading to Central Europe. Hungary has shut down its 2GW Paks nuclear plant for the first time in 44 years after Danube water temperatures approached critical cooling thresholds, removing 40% of the country's domestic generation at a stroke. Romania has declared a state of emergency over its own 1.3GW nuclear plant on the same river, with authorities resorting to detonating rocks in the riverbed to increase water flow. France meanwhile has 7.2GW — over 11% of its entire nuclear fleet — offline due to high water temperatures on the Rhône. The continent's nuclear baseload, designed for a different climate, is proving increasingly ill-adapted to the summers it now faces. Hungary and Romania are likely to turn to coal and gas-fired generation to compensate, adding a new layer of demand to an already tight European market.
Guillaume Perret
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Markets search for equilibrium as summer volatility persists
31 July 2026
Coal and energy markets are caught in a push-pull dynamic heading into August. DES ARA financial swung $5 higher on Wednesday before giving back $3 the following day, closing at $122.50/t — a pattern of violent intraday moves that reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainty rather than any clear directional conviction. Spot physical holds at $121/t with the September bid at $119/t, while FOB NEWC is stable around $132/t and the Chinese domestic market has now been unchanged at CNY825/t for two consecutive weeks. Gas and power retain some downside correction potential, with TTF losing 3.2% to €58.60/MWh and German power easing to €137.25/MWh, though EDF's latest nuclear outage figure of 4.9GW — 8% of total French fleet capacity — continues to provide a structural floor. Rhine river levels remain the key physical constraint to watch: German buyers are reportedly delaying spot coal purchases by one to two months, pushing demand into Q4 and supporting the back end of the curve, with Q4 and Cal 27 both firming to $125/t.
The gas-to-coal switching story is broadening geographically. Bangladesh is now a confirmed participant, with coal-fired generation up 27% year-on-year in H1 2026 while gas output fell 8% — a trend driven by persistently high LNG prices and tighter regional supply following the Hormuz disruption. Japan's thermal coal imports rose a solid 34% year-on-year in June, taking H1 imports up 12% to 57.7mt, with Australian and Indonesian supplies both growing strongly. Taiwan's state utility Taipower has issued a fresh short-term tender for 320KT of sub-bituminous coal for October–December delivery, a sign that Asian utilities are actively restocking for the second half. Turkey is also beginning to recover: coal-fired generation rebounded 141% month-on-month in June as hydro seasonally peaks out, and Perret Associates has raised its Q3 coal demand forecast for the country — though on an annual basis output remains 40% below last year's level.
Guillaume Perret
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A second wave — markets test the limits of resilience
23 July 2026
Energy markets are pushing into overbought territory as a second wave of attacks on Iran compounds supply stress that never fully resolved after the first. TTF gas hit €62/MWh — testing the spike seen during the initial US strikes in March — while German power surged 7% to €133/MWh and Brent climbed back above $93/bbl. DES ARA physical reached $123.25/t, though the financial contract showed a potentially significant intraday reversal, surging to $125/t before closing barely changed at $121.75/t — a sign that resistance is being tested and a short-term correction may be approaching. The Rhine remains critically low despite recent rain, with barges running at just one-third capacity; if navigation constraints persist, the coal that utilities need to burn may struggle to reach the plants that need it, even as clean dark spreads make coal-fired generation highly profitable. Separately, a Turkish-flagged coal vessel was struck by a drone in the Black Sea while sailing from the Russian port of Taman, killing one crew member — a reminder that the conflict's reach is extending into supply chains well beyond the Persian Gulf.
China's net steam coal imports rebounded strongly in June, up 29% year-on-year to 30mt, driven by a surge in Indonesian and Australian deliveries. But the H1 total still came in 15mt or 9% below last year, and Russian supplies collapsed 42% year-on-year as sanctions and logistical disruption took hold. The impact is spreading: Indian petcoke production fell in the first five months of the year as crude oil imports via Hormuz were curtailed, and petcoke imports from the Persian Gulf dropped from 7.3mt in H1 2025 to just 4.8mt — tightening the competitive landscape for thermal coal in India's industrial sector. South Korea is confirming a meaningful gas-to-coal switch, with coal-fired generation up 25% year-on-year in the first five months, utilities increasingly substituting high-CV Russian coal for Indonesian grades to maximise efficiency. South African RBCT terminal inventories have surged to a seasonal high of 5.1mt — 42% above the July average — offering one of the few clear sources of additional export supply in an otherwise constrained market.
Guillaume Perret
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Europe's energy rethink deepens as China reopens the arbitrage
21 July 2026
Coal and gas markets in Europe are in overbought territory after a sustained rally, with TTF gas up to €58.45/MWh and German power hitting €125/MWh — a correction is widely expected but has yet to materialise. DES ARA physical is holding just above $119/t, supported by tight availability of qualifying spot material and a Morocco tender awarded $5 above the previous one, signalling that genuine demand is underpinning prices even as the financial curve approaches resistance. The longer-term picture is hardening: the Czech Republic has effectively abandoned its 2033 coal phase-out deadline and is extending its nuclear reactors' operational lives to 2080, joining a growing list of European countries concluding that the energy transition cannot be delivered on the original timetable. State power company CEZ has already raised its 2026 earnings forecast on stronger-than-expected coal generation following gas-to-coal switching triggered by the Hormuz crisis.
In Asia, the most significant development this week is the reopening of the Chinese importing arbitrage. Domestic Qinhuangdao prices have recovered to CNY825/t, bringing Russian and Australian coal back into competitive territory for Chinese delivery — a reversal of the complete arbitrage closure seen last week. The underlying driver is a confirmed decline in Chinese domestic coal production: output across the top four producing regions fell 38mt or 2% year-on-year in H1 2026, with Shanxi hit particularly hard following a mine explosion that killed 82 people and triggered a wave of inspections. India's import trend is also quietly turning — June marked the first year-on-year increase since November 2025, with South African and US grades gradually filling the gap left by declining Indonesian supply, whose share of India's import mix has fallen from 62% in early 2026 to just 51% by May–June.
Guillaume Perret
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Geopolitics returns, heat bites — DES ARA snaps back
14 July 2026
Energy markets reversed sharply higher this week as hostilities in the Persian Gulf resumed and France's nuclear fleet came under sustained heat stress. DES ARA physical recovered $3.75 to $118.25/t and the financial contract jumped over $5, while TTF gas surged 5.6% and German power hit €117/MWh. The move came after an aggressive and somewhat puzzling $8 sell-off in physical DES ARA late last week — a reminder that summer liquidity can amplify moves in both directions. EDF has now extended outages at three nuclear plants due to Rhône river water temperatures breaching the 30°C regulatory cooling limit, with Golfech, Chooz and Bugey offline until late July at the earliest. A 15% cut in French nuclear output, combined with persistently low Rhine water levels constraining coal barge supply, is shifting the seasonal peak of DES ARA volatility firmly from winter to summer.
In Asia, FOB NEWC is holding support around $129/t while the Chinese domestic market stabilises after weeks of pressure — Qinhuangdao spot is testing CNY805/t and intense typhoon activity is temporarily capping thermal demand while boosting hydro. More strikingly, for the first time this year no international coal origin is now competitive for delivery into China, with even Russian coal flipping to a slight premium over domestic. Chinese power plant coal consumption is running 11% below last year and 4% under seasonal norms, yet stocks remain comfortable — a combination that points to muted domestic output rather than demand collapse. India offers a partial offset: independent coal producers are outperforming strongly at +12% year-on-year in June, even as the two largest state-owned producers continue to miss targets, and the country's sponge iron sector is set to increase its coal-based production share above 80% in 2026 as gas procurement difficulties persist.
Guillaume Perret
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China softens, Indonesia cracks — the supply story is changing
7 July 2026
The Chinese domestic coal market is weighing on the entire complex this week, with Qinhuangdao spot prices dropping CNY15 to CNY815/t and the importing arbitrage deteriorating sharply — Russian coal now stands as the only origin competitive for Chinese delivery, and even its discount has narrowed to just $3/t, the lowest since the Iran crisis erupted in February. FOB NEWC held flat at $129/t while DES ARA financial sold off aggressively, opening a striking $7 premium of physical over paper for August delivery — a sign that qualifying spot material remains scarce even as sentiment softens. With up to CNY50 of further downside possible in the Chinese domestic market in coming weeks, mid and low CV grades face continued headwinds.
The Indonesia story is proving far less catastrophic than official forecasts suggested, but the cracks are widening. Exports tracked only 3% below last year in May, and Perret Associates now forecasts a full-year decline of 44mt rather than the 190mt collapse the government's 600mt production target implied. The catch: producers appear to have been drawing down stocks to keep exports flowing, leaving less buffer for the second half. The pressure is now acute domestically — over 150 million people in Java alone suffered blackouts in June, and the energy ministry has allocated an additional 4.8mt per month to state utility PLN from August through December. Production quotas are being revised again, and the domestic price cap of $70/t — unchanged since 2018 — remains the root cause of a structural misalignment that no short-term fix will resolve.
Guillaume Perret
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Summer heat reshapes the market — a new seasonal dynamic emerges
1 July 2026
Coal markets are finding their footing after weeks of geopolitical-driven volatility. FOB NEWC has confirmed support at $125/t, with spot and prompt paper now trading at parity and the financial curve shifting into a slight contango — a meaningful contrast with DES ARA, which remains in backwardation and is attracting renewed buying interest for August and September delivery. The broader signal is one of stabilisation rather than recovery, though a potentially long and hot European summer is beginning to rewrite the seasonal playbook. Paris is already experiencing localised power cuts as underground cables overheat, and a new heat wave is expected to arrive across Western Europe around 6 July. Falling Rhine water levels are also starting to bite, constraining coal barge supply at precisely the wrong moment.
China's power consumption grew 7% year-on-year in May, with strong momentum across industrial, services and residential sectors — and robust growth is forecast to continue into July. Yet the domestic coal market is softening as precipitation along the Yangtze boosts hydro output, keeping pressure on mid and low CV grades internationally. Russian coal production is rising in response to higher prices, and a partial lift of international sanctions could accelerate that trend further. Meanwhile Australian NSW mine inventories are running 11% below last year's levels, a tightness in supply that is not yet fully reflected in prices but bears watching as the second half of the year approaches.
Guillaume Perret
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Peace deal, explosion, election — markets digest a week of contradictions
23 june 2026
Coal markets are in a holding pattern as the dust settles on the US-Iran agreement, with high CV contracts stabilising rather than falling further while the broader energy complex digests a week of conflicting signals. FOB NEWC spot has slipped to $139/t and DES ARA to $116/t, but the pace of decline is slowing. The path back to normal Persian Gulf flows will be anything but straightforward: Monday's severe explosion at the Ras Laffan LNG terminal — killing 13 people and audible 80km away — is a stark reminder that restarting complex infrastructure after a three-month shutdown carries serious risks. More such incidents, whether accidental or otherwise, should be expected in the weeks ahead.
In Asia, the demand picture remains mixed. China's net steam coal imports fell 22% year-on-year in May, tracking well below last year's pace, though a recovery in June is anticipated. Chinese power plant coal consumption is easing off seasonally while inventories remain comfortable. More constructive signals are coming from elsewhere: Malaysia posted an all-time high in thermal coal imports in April, South Korea is showing early signs of gas-to-coal switching, and Indonesia's state power utility PLN is reportedly 20mt short of coal for 2026 — a structural tightness that the low domestic price cap is doing little to resolve. Colombian supply is also back in focus following the narrow election victory of right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who has pledged to reverse his predecessor's moratorium on hydrocarbon contracts and lower taxes on the coal sector, though his wafer-thin margin and lack of a party machine make delivery far from certain.
Guillaume Perret
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US-Iran deal in sight — markets reprice sharply
16 june 2026
Energy markets sold off heavily on Monday following the announcement of a US-Iran agreement expected to be signed this Friday, with coal, gas and crude oil all correcting sharply lower. FOB NEWC spot dropped to $149/t while the Q3 financial contract plunged $7 to $138/t, and DES ARA spot shed over $6 to close at $120/t — its lowest level since early April. Brent crude fell 4% to $82.80/bbl, TTF gas dropped nearly 10%, and the spread between June and Q3 paper blew out to $10/t, a sign that markets are repositioning fast. As always, the devil will be in the details: with production sites and export terminals across the region severely damaged, the path back to pre-crisis commodity flows is unlikely to be smooth.
The sell-off masks some important nuances. In South Korea, coal-fired generation was up a robust 36% year-on-year in April with early signs of gas-to-coal switching emerging — a structural shift to watch heading into the cooling season, particularly as nuclear output contracts sharply. Malaysia recorded an all-time high in thermal coal imports in April at 4.9mt, more than double March's figure, with Russian supplies surging. Meanwhile Indonesia's newly formed state export monitor DSI has walked back its more ambitious initial mandate, clarifying it will focus on oversight rather than taking over trading and logistics — a more credible and market-friendly approach than originally feared.
Guillaume Perret
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Markets catch their breath — but geopolitics keeps traders on edge
11 june 2026
Coal markets staged a partial recovery this week after fresh Middle East tensions interrupted the recent downward correction. FOB NEWC spot held around the $150/t mark while financial contracts clawed back some of their recent losses, and DES ARA spot absorbed a sharp $4 single-session drop before the curve stabilised. With Trump reportedly signalling a deal is imminent for the 38th time in as many days, markets are increasingly caught between geopolitical fatigue and the risk of complacency — a combination that rarely ends quietly.
The demand picture is quietly shifting in Asia. Taiwanese thermal coal imports surged 36% month-on-month in May, confirming a trend reversal that Perret Associates had been anticipating, with Australian supplies driving the bulk of the gain as Indonesian volumes continue to fall. India's power plant stockpiles are drawing down steadily — still above the June average but the surplus is narrowing fast. Meanwhile, China's solar sector is confronting a structural overcapacity crisis, with curtailment rates rising and most panel manufacturers now loss-making, a dynamic that reinforces coal's continued role in the country's baseload power mix for years ahead.
Guillaume Perret
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Coal markets pull back — but the story is far from over
10 june 2026
Coal and energy markets extended their downward correction this week, with the bearish trend that began yesterday showing no immediate sign of reversal. FOB NEWC spot has now broken through the $150/t threshold, while DES ARA shed ground across the curve despite a physical market that remains broadly supportive. The correction appears orderly for now, unfolding in small steps as markets digest the latest signals from Iran and reassess positions built during weeks of almost uninterrupted gains.
Beneath the surface, the fundamentals tell a more nuanced story. China's net steam coal imports continue to track well below last year's pace — down over 14% year-on-year in the first five months of 2026 — while ARA inventories are rising and currently sit 17% below their post-2021 June average. Germany stands out as a key data point to watch: coal-fired generation is forecast to jump 65% year-on-year in Q3 2026 as wind output declines seasonally and gas picks up the slack, a reminder that European demand for thermal coal remains structurally present despite the broader energy transition narrative.
With Brent crude down 3.5% and TTF gas softening, the coming days will hinge on geopolitical developments — particularly over the weekend, when market-moving announcements from the US administration on the Iran situation have a habit of landing while exchanges are closed.
Guillaume Perret
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Coal markets at an inflection point — backwardation signals a new phase
5 june 2026
The FOB NEWC 6000 forward curve has flipped from contango to full backwardation within a week, driven by a $7 surge in spot physical prices and a rush of deal activity that closed the gap with prompt paper. While some consolidation may follow in the near term, the speed of this shift reflects how quickly market sentiment can reprice when fundamentals tighten.
The Iran situation continues to cast a long shadow. A notable side effect is the collapse of Chinese steel exports to the Arabian Gulf, undermining the fragile stabilisation of domestic crude steel output. With Hormuz still effectively blocked, China faces growing economic pressure — pressure that could ultimately draw it into a more active role in resolving the crisis.
In the Atlantic and Med, DES ARA has had a volatile week with daily swings of $3–7, while Colombian supply returning to the market after a Force Majeure is capping some of the recent bullish momentum. In Indonesia, early estimates suggest the new state-owned export control entity DSI may need up to $21bn in working capital — a first real test of government resolve on a project that could reshape global supply flows for years to come.
Guillaume Perret
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It’s hot out there….
29 May 2026
Extreme heat across Asia is beginning to reshape energy markets, with early signs of El Niño already driving stronger electricity consumption in countries such as India and Vietnam. Temperatures approaching 40°C, combined with weaker nighttime wind and solar generation, are increasing reliance on coal-fired power despite ongoing supply chain constraints.
At the same time, markets remain trapped between geopolitical uncertainty and tightening fundamentals. Hopes for a potential US-Iran agreement continue to clash with renewed regional attacks, leaving traders focused on the future of the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of global energy flows.
Coal markets are showing mixed short-term signals, with pressure on high-CV grades but a more constructive medium-term outlook emerging. Meanwhile, DES ARA prices appear to be losing momentum as gas and power markets wait for the next geopolitical catalyst…
Our latest reports explore:
• The impact of early El Niño conditions on Asian power demand
• Coal’s growing role in stabilising regional grids
• The evolving US-Iran situation and energy market implications
• Updated FOB NEWC, Richards Bay and DES ARA outlooks
• LNG, TTF gas and European power market analysis.
Guillaume Perret
When geopolitics meets tightening fundamentals, energy markets rarely remain stable for long.
19 May 2026
The global energy complex is entering a phase where uncertainty is no longer temporary noise, but a structural market driver. Across coal, gas and power, resistance levels are being tested while geopolitical tensions continue to cloud visibility.
In Asia, Chinese fundamentals are quietly strengthening. Coal-fired generation remains above expectations while domestic production still struggles to accelerate, creating a market environment that remains unexpectedly firm despite widespread expectations of consolidation. At the same time, arbitrage dynamics between Russian and Indonesian grades are reshaping import strategies across the region.
In Europe and the Atlantic basin, traders are increasingly watching critical technical thresholds in TTF gas, Brent crude and German power markets. Whether these levels hold — or break — may define the next phase of the global energy cycle.
Our latest Daily Report explores the emerging signals behind these movements, including China’s coal consumption trends, tightening ARA inventories, Indonesian pricing developments and freight market direction.
Guillaume Perret
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Xi Jinping and Trump meeting this week could be critical
12 May 2026
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not only impacting crude oil and oil products (impact on traditional transportation) but also sulphur with a direct impact on EVs. (We will develop this story shortly). Given the importance of EVs in the Chinese economy, this means that China also has a strong incentive to reopen the Strait.
Meanwhile Q1 is already gone for Indonesian exports. April will also be down y-o-y and there are no signs of spot improvement. The country is not reacting that quickly to the recent rally, meaning there could be more upside.
Gas to coal switching: first signs in Bangladesh….
Guillaume Perret
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Rally continues
6 May 2026
FOB high CV contracts had a strong start after the long 4-day break (Friday 1st and Monday 4th May off in many countries), broadly following the oil contract. Prices initially surged on reports of further attacks on US military ships and a South Korean oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
But they corrected downward in the afternoon as the US announced that Iran had not broken the cease fire. A more sustainable relief will come from a successful US convoy with a few oil tankers and LNG carriers….
Guillaume Perret
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Good idea
24 April 2026
The recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (by Iran and more recently by the US) is giving ideas to other countries.
Some officials in Indonesia are floating the idea that the country is studying the possibility to “monetize” shipping traffic through the Strait of Malacca.
The strait is critical for traffic from the Indian ocean and the Atlantic to South East and North East Asia. Singapore is a major port for refuelling or maintenance, for vessels travelling between the Atlantic and the Pacific.
These are very preliminary announcements as no single country fully controls the Strait of Malacca. The Strait is managed by 4 major countries:
Indonesia which controls the South West part with the island of Sumatra
Malaysia which controls the Northeast part
Singapore which controls the Southern entrance and also the narrowest part of the Strait (only 2.7km, which is less than the Strait of Hormuz).
Thailand is a 4th member of the team of countries managing the Strait of Malacca but with a much lower weight.
Singapore, which wants to defend its pro-business reputation, was prompt to refute the idea.
Guillaume Perret
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It’s a new day in Iran
9 April 2026
Once again it was a last minute change of tactic from the US administration which seems relieved to accept a last minute 10 points proposal from Iran. Meanwhile Israel continues its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia has been targeted. The volume of LNG passing via Hormuz has doubled from last week but these are probably vessels that have been loaded for a while. The LNG production issue in Qatar is still there and the trend of LNG exports in the coming weeks will be critical.
Guillaume Perret
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