Good idea
24 April 2026
The recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (by Iran and more recently by the US) is giving ideas to other countries.
Some officials in Indonesia are floating the idea that the country is studying the possibility to “monetize” shipping traffic through the Strait of Malacca.
The strait is critical for traffic from the Indian ocean and the Atlantic to South East and North East Asia. Singapore is a major port for refuelling or maintenance, for vessels travelling between the Atlantic and the Pacific.
These are very preliminary announcements as no single country fully controls the Strait of Malacca. The Strait is managed by 4 major countries:
Indonesia which controls the South West part with the island of Sumatra
Malaysia which controls the Northeast part
Singapore which controls the Southern entrance and also the narrowest part of the Strait (only 2.7km, which is less than the Strait of Hormuz).
Thailand is a 4th member of the team of countries managing the Strait of Malacca but with a much lower weight.
Singapore, which wants to defend its pro-business reputation, was prompt to refute the idea.
Guillaume Perret
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It’s a new day in Iran
9 April 2026
Once again it was a last minute change of tactic from the US administration which seems relieved to accept a last minute 10 points proposal from Iran. Meanwhile Israel continues its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia has been targeted. The volume of LNG passing via Hormuz has doubled from last week but these are probably vessels that have been loaded for a while. The LNG production issue in Qatar is still there and the trend of LNG exports in the coming weeks will be critical.
Guillaume Perret
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Spot NEWC 6000 drops back on Trump’s new gyration
24 March 2026
Energy markets were (again) wrongfooted by Mr Trump's change of tactic. The world was preparing itself for an armageddon with a Monday evening ultimatum for Iran to either free up Hormuz or face the destruction of its power plants. Trump has now prolonged the ultimatum to 5 days citing strong progress in negotiations with Iran, which immediately denied it. Still, most contracts corrected down heavily, happy to catch their breath after 3 weeks of almost uninterrupted gains. Russian coal is now the best Value in Use when delivered to China, India and most countries in Asia. South Korean Gencos are boosting their spot procurement with Russian coal. After a few weeks of stalemate, Chinese domestic prices are picking up to attract more international supplies. Currently only Russian coal is competitive when delivered to China. In a similar scenario to 2022 we expect Chinese imports to drop (moderately) in 2026, but this will be more than offset by a surge in imports from other critical countries. As coal is very much back in favour due to the recent developments, it is time to look again at CCUS as an economically viable technology.
Guillaume Perret
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1991 all over again!
Coal back in its role of secured and affordable energy source during crisis
13 March 2026
Illustrative imageThe mega announcement by the IEA of the release of 400m barrels from its reserve did not have the expected bearish impact on oil, gas, power and coal. This is a sizable volume but this is equivalent to about 20 days of normal crude oil traffic via Hormuz (20m barrels per day) or 1 month of EU oil consumption. Despite the rhetoric from the US of a potentially “imminent” end of the conflict the situation on the ground is much more complex with regular attacks on the few vessels daring to pass the Strait and that have not been authorised by Iran. Until now the consensus was that Trump would decide when the war is over, proclaiming victory whatever the results might be. But three serious doubts are now emerging.
Firstly, as Anne-Sophie Corbeau pointed out in our Webinar on Tuesday, the issue is not only the Strait of Hormuz, but also the fact that oil and LNG facilities have been partially destroyed in the region (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait). Even if Hormuz is fully re-opened tomorrow, it will take weeks if not months to gear up production to normal levels.
Secondly Israel seems to have a much harder line on the conflict and it might want to pursue its effort and inflict more damage even if the US is withdrawing from the conflict.
Lastly and in a worrying scenario, it is not a given that Iran will oblige and free up Hormuz if the US stops their assault. Sensing that the wind is turning, Iran could in fact push its advantage and continue to disrupt global commodity flows, while letting oil cargoes transiting via Hormuz but only for specific destinations such as China.
Our Base Case scenario remains a 4-6 weeks conflict for now, but we would need to see serious bombing of the South West coast of Iran sooner rather than later.
All the above is bullish coal demand and prices. Let’s not forget that the first strong correlation between oil and coal occurred in 1991 during the first Iraq war. At that time many power plants were still running on diesel and the Iraq war accelerated the transition from diesel to coal-fired power plants.
We anticipate some gas to coal switching worldwide in the coming weeks and months. We do not anticipate gas power plants to be converted to coal due to the crisis. But as highlighted in our Webinar, this reinforces our view that many countries will skip the gas transition to some degree.
On another note and let’s not forget this, Indonesia daily exports keep falling, despite the recent announcement from the government of a higher production target at 733mt.
Guillaume Perret
Gone With The Wind, Wakey-Wakey
4 Feb 2026
We have been puzzled in our reports by the underperformance of wind generation in recent months, in particular in the EU zone. After a period of strong growth in both capacity (GW) and generation (TWh) during 2010-2022, wind generation in the EU bloc has disconnected with the growth in capacity.
In fact Germany, which is the largest EU country in terms of wind generation, has seen its actual wind generation decrease over the last two years, from its peak of 139.9TWh in 2023 (to 137.5TWh in 2024 and 132.4TWh in 2025). Meanwhile wind capacity increased from 69.1GW in 2023 to 70.8GW in 2024 and we estimate 72-73GW in 2025.
True, the pace of additional capacity has significantly decreased from +3GW to +5GW per annum during 2010-20 and the weather conditions might have changed with lower wind than usual.
But at a EU+ UK level, our colleagues from Volue Data & Forecasts calculate that in 2025, wind generation underperformed by a significant 120TWh vs. what could have been expected based on capacity and normal weather conditions. The under-performance was mainly noticeable during the winter months.
Another reason could be the so-called “wake effect”.
This occurs in wind turbines when some of the energy from the wind is extracted by initial turbines, reducing the energy available to the turbines behind it.
Wind both slows down and becomes more turbulent after it passes through a turbine, which also increases the risk of fatigue damage for downstream turbines.
Research from the University of Colorado has found that the wake effect is stronger offshore. The research predicts that adding more wind turbines in the Atlantic Ocean could reduce the output of existing wind farms by more than 30%.
Most of the reduction comes from wakes formed between turbines within a single farm, but wakes can reach turbines as far as 55km away, so affect other wind farms. The research found that in hot summer periods (when electricity demand is high) wakes last for longer time periods and over longer distances.
There were similar findings in a 2025 study commissioned by the Dutch government, which found overall losses from the wake effect of 21.7%. The Netherlands is aiming to increase installed wind capacity from 5GW now to 70 GW by 2050.
Separate research by Belgian academics found that the effect of adding more wind farms in the North Sea would reduce the annual energy production of 25 out of 69 currently operational wind farms by over 5%, with 13 of them having reductions of more than 10%. The planned Princess Elisabeth zone in Belgian waters is predicted to reduce the output of existing Belgian wind farms by more than 15% in one out of every five 24-hour periods with high production potential.
There are possible workarounds for developers, one of the most obvious being to manage the spacing between turbines. That is obviously easier in the US, for example, than in Europe, due to greater availability of space, but the Trump administration has shown its hostility to wind turbines, often called “wind mills” by Trump.
Co-operation between wind farm operators in neighbouring states will be needed to maximise their efficiency. If such co-operation is lacking, those counting on a rapid acceleration of wind generation capacity are likely to be disappointed.
Wind power also creates its own environmental challenges which will need to be addressed. By 2040, between 10,000 and 20,000 turbine blades will be retired each year in Europe alone. Globally, there will be about 43mt of cumulative blade waste by 2050, and permanent disposal solutions need to be found.
I look forward to meeting you at E World in Essen on 10-11 February on the Volue Data & Forecasts stand (Halle 3).
Guillaume Perret
EU+ UK wind actual generation vs. potential
Source: Volue Data and Forecast
Germany: wind actual generation vs. capacity
Source: Fraunhofer, Perret Associates